DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
DannyP, Asemi, and I have been getting into the same conversations regarding investing money with certain methods. I am no expert in this field, but I believe with the exchange of information on this thread we can really get some ideas flowing from the board members.
First off pay off all your Credit card debt. The interest rates on credit cards these days are horrendous! You'll want to aim somewhere between 6%-12% on an APR regarding credit cards, depending on credit. Now if you are REALLY desperate, you can do a balance transfer to a card that offers 0% APR for a certain amount of months. This is the best option since you are techincally just transferring the debt and buying yourself so much more time to pay off the balance without incurring interest. Interest Adds up, just watch the Futurama episode A Fishful of Dollars. :)
Saving is something that is really hard to do. If you are the type of person who never dips into savings(unless an emergency occurs), you should REALLY open a money market account. Money market accounts are basically savings accounts with high interest rates, with the only expense of being limited to the number of withdrawals you make per month(typically 3). This account is awesome. Get one immediately. I've seen money market rates as high as 6%.
Anymore suggestions?
Interesting post. I'm a portfolio analyst (tech media telecom) on a 22-member investing team at my university.
If you have more cash to allocate I have some great Canadian equity suggestions, otherwise, money market sounds good. Stay away from most mutual funds.
i'm not sure what you mean by a money market account.. but skip those and go for the mmda (money market deposit account). these are like hsbcdirect.com. they have no minimum balance, no limit on deposits/withdrawals, and get 5% to 6% typically, they are also fdic insured, unlike traditional money market accounts.
depending on your time horizon and your principle, you should jump into an index fund (djia/sp500/&c) or a no load mutual fund. i recommend
scottrade.com for very nice, inexpensive online trading (min $500). if you're looking at investing money for 18+ months and have about $1000, i think trading is the way to go (depending on your risk aversion, of course).
> If you have more cash to allocate I have some great Canadian equity suggestions, otherwise, money market sounds good. Stay away from most mutual funds.
what do you suggest for equity? and why would you recommend against mutual funds? i know they aren't as magical as most people think, but they generally offer returns on par (if not slightly above) index funds.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
^ Responding
FDIC insurance is only guaranteed up to $100,000. I plan to reach this before I'm 30 so that presents a problem in assets. Also, a lot of people do not like the risk of ruin and variance that is inherent to stock trading. For the conservative fiscal spender, I would buy bonds. You can get a lot of bonds lower than face value at a certain site on the internet. Upon date of maturity you can redeem for face value I believe. Also, I like risk, I gamble, so it's no different on the poker table than it is on the market. I'm looking to get into Forex trading, or option trading. Any good literature to read up on that? Also, a thread detailing Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis would be awesome.
Re: equity it depends on your desired risk. Cdn banks are generally a great buy dependent on price history. Higher risk Talisman Energy, Finning, Le Chateau.
I dislike funds for fees, gimmicky investing strategies. Good funds have great core competencies and superb histories.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
I don't really like index funds. You have to invest A LOT of money in order to be above breaking even. Although it is a good way to achieve diversification in your portfolio.
My strategy for equities is value investing. Generally looking at EV/EBITDA and industry multiples, low debt/EBITDA, and strong FCF yield. However much is sector dependent. IMHO technical analysis for picks is sketchy.
> You have to invest A LOT of money in order to be above breaking even.
huh? why?
> I dislike funds for fees, gimmicky investing strategies. Good funds have great core competencies and superb histories.
yeah, i'd have to find a no-load that didn't make any grandiose claims and had a very good history with realistic returns.
> My strategy for equities is value investing.
afaik, that's what most firms look at.. value.
> IMHO technical analysis for picks is sketchy.
agreed, although perhaps something (though not much) can be said for mean reversion
there's a lot of growth investors out there. if you don't have access to research portals then its tough to do the comps.
hey thanks for posting this gatz, here's the
old thread on investing. My personal situation has changed a bit and I'm ready to shuffle some bags around!
oh by the way what research portals are you referring to nestor? Glad to see your back too, hope you can share some of your work experience with us!
> oh by the way what research portals are you referring to nestor?
probably commercial investment data (expensive shit)
one of my financial econ profs has access to one through his old school (wash u)
like online portal or what? There are plenty of really expensive publications that are out of reach for people regarding investing, but I'm just not sure if they're some of the same ones.
research of i-banks (personally i have access to ubs, cs, bear stearns, and all cdn banks) + research companies.
ozntz
toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
what kind of investments are you trying to start 1, 5, 10 year , retirement?
For me most of my interest is in retirement atm. I contribute to a 403b but i'm interested in starting a IRA also
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
good thread!
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
ozntz: Your best bet is to do a 401k with the maximum input necessary to have your company match whatever contributions you are making. Watch the transferability of that. As for opening an IRA, Roth IRA's are a good retirement option as well.
ozntz
toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I'm already contributing more then the company match
I currently have about 5 grand to throw into the market. I was thinking about just doing
hsbcdirect.com thing. I won't need to touch this money for a while, any other suggestions? Good thread by the way.
how long is a while tp?
I just opened an hsbc direct account just now and dumped in some g's.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I might do the same.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
also, if you don't need to touch the money for a while Trent, a certificate of deposit might be a good idea.
Nothing wrong with T-Bills and Treasury Notes. Check out
treasury direct for info. You could also do an I savings Bond, or if you want long-term go for EE.
So who here does any trading? Like lr mentioned scottrade is decent.
i do trading in an organization...
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I'm checking out t-bills right now. I need to get a new driver's license and open up a treasury direct account.
i do trading in an organization...
sounds illegal ;)
nah I know what you mean, so any tips?
I'm going to open a treasury direct account right now too.
I opened the account but it has a hold on it because my identity is not verified..? As soon as the hold is off I'm buying a t-bill.
if you're going to be picking individual stocks try to get some quality research. or ask me and i'll pull down some targets and commentary if i have the time.
Could you break down some of the general research methods you use?
I took a few courses and learned a bit of fundamental and technical analysis. Mainly though, I'd be interested in methods non-conventional or stuff that maybe the textbook doesn't discuss. I know organizations that do this sort of thing are going to have greater access to corporate information and be able to know what exactly is going on in management, cutting through a bit of the cruft.
I operate in TMT - tech media telecom. We use some specialized measures like churn rate & average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) but mostly standard valuation measures borrowed from M&A types:
EV/EBITDA (LTM + forward 2 years... analyst research is key)
PEG ratio
P/EPS
Debt/EBITDA
Also there are quite a few income trusts in Canada even after the tax shakedown so we use some specialized metrics there too.
I'm thinking about a year, I did take out a CD for this previous year, but since hsbc has almost the same rate of interest it might be the better route to go.
nestor, what's P/EPS for? Is this the same as forward price to earnings?
Also when calculating Debt/EBITDA, your goal is to find debt of a company in comparison to companies and/or across industries? also, are you considering LTM or longer, and do you project debt?
Thanks for your reply btw, this is all very interesting :)
We always use LTM and forward 2 years for all EBITDA metrics. I don't project debt, that's what analysts are for... :D The biggest calculation we do is options-in-the-money to find FDSO (fully diluted shares outstanding).
Personally all my institutional investments are in one industry (Tech, media, or telecom). Each sector has a different % of the total investment pot.
Haha, yeah, sorry, it is fwd. P/E. I was just scanning some of my slides.
Wow I have so much to learn ;) I'm glad I can figure out what you mean at least on a casual level.
Alright so I was on my quest today to get the best credit card deal possible. The problem I have is that I am trying to get checks for free from one of my banks but they haven't provided. I have to pay, and so I'm trying to find an alternative to chucking $25 for checks. So in my search I found out my bank, Washington Mutual has a new account offer that's outstanding compaired to my old account. The savings gives 5% APY whereas my old one gave me 0.25% (!!!!!!!!) the interest rate was also 0.25% and my new account gives me 4.89% interest. Not to mention free checks!
I'm pretty happy now :) So now I'm looking at credit cards. I'm thinking of either this USAA cash rewards card, or a WAMU platinum. The search is on! I really need to build my credit :o
ozntz
toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
who the hell uses checks???? :)
how do you pay for your credit card?
web banking!
yay chartered banks!!
yeah, i pay online
the only time i ever use a check is to pay rent to my landlord
if anyone has a bit of cash lying around a good play might be into BCE, canada's largest telco (think AT&T). it is currently involved in an LBO transaction with some big Cdn and US private equity players in a deal valued at $52b (largest LBO in history if it goes through). the deal is lined up to close in march/april and the spread between market and tender is widening, the arb opportunity is pretty huge. at current prices the return would be 11%, annualized return like around 40%.
i don't see a lot of risk in the transaction given a) all the loans are syndicated b) a ton of canadians are waiting to cash out on this with shares from like 1901 c) it doesn't really change the competitive landscape in any meaningful way for consumers.
the spread has basically been propagated by funds doing automated trading and people being mad. anyways arb trading is an interesting tactic for people like me who fiend m&a news.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I'm scared of the stock market.
I've been taking 50 USD/week out of my paycheck and putting it into savings. it's been working out well, I have over 500 USD in my savings now. once I get up around 1,000 I'm going to consider investing in something like T-Bills or a certificate of deposit. not sure yet.
oh, and I got my first credit card a few days ago :). time to build some credit!
i'm scared of the credit market :D
depending on where the market is it i would invest in an index fund over a t-bill
another good pick for those interested: rogers communications. both bce and rogers are listed on the nyse.
rogers recently got hammered by the decision to open canada's wireless market to more competition, but valuations show rogers is trading at a massive discount to its peers given the new competitive position. targets are in the $50-60 range implying large returns, catalyst will be aws auction in march. this is a riskier play but a strong one.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
yeah I don't know what an index fund is. I'll research this more when I get closer to having enough :).
ugh i'm sorry if i'm insufferably financial
finance exam in a few days and banking recruiting season is on
phi_
... and let the Earth be silent after ye.
I want to hire one of you to invest my money...
dp stax bills (non debt variety).
finance exam tomorrow!
good luck!
i rocked it
but now i have a business modeling exam before i can go home!
B)
there's nothing like knowing you have to pull an 86 on the final when you got 69 on the midterm to get an A in the class.
6 hours to freedom
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
I just told asemi what an index fund was.
word!
done! (until january)
sweet
this post has been archived.
today i deposited a check into my checking account, and i forgot to endorse it. but the teller accepted it and gave me a receipt. what will happen? will the
federal reserve branch reject it?
p.s. ref
http://www.thinktankforums.com/thread.php?thread_id=207
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Most likely the money will be deducted from your account and the check mailed back to you. I would call the bank right away though. Now if it was something like a paycheck or a personal check made out to you(not 3rd party), it'll most likely get stamped with a direct to deposit logo and nothing else will happen. What kind of check was it?
Chiken
Don't Let Your Walls Down
I never endorse my paychecks and they go through ok.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
^ See my second statement.
It really depends on where the check came from.
what's a third party check?
have you guys seen
www.mint.com ?
i tried it them deleted my account with them. i wasn't overly impressed.
well, the check that i deposited without an endorsement posted fully. so whatever.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
me and a couple of roommates were talking about writing your account numbers under your signature when endorsing your checks. I never thought about it, but this means that anyone you cash a check from can see your account number, never mind anyone else who handles the check.
however, I read one some not credible website that it is legal for banks to require this. kind of lame. I might start not doing it, but I've had tellers tell me to do it before.
i think the depositing institution prints the routing and account number on the back anyway.
asemisldkfj:
you'r account number is on the front of all the checks you write. Putting yours on the back just ensures that it goes to your account.
this post has been archived.
nestor > some decent spending policy
i want to defecate on his face
i'm looking at the little google finance favicon and cringing
european economists are insanely pessimistic (perhaps for good reason)
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I want to start investing some shit. kind of bad timing, eh?
yep. invest in a business school education and become a restructuring banker.
nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
invest in commodities.
> yep. invest in a business school education and become a restructuring banker.
haha
Hi peoples. I'm building a little online portfolio on google finance, what companies do any of you guys look at?
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
JAVA ....
The SEC banned shorting of financials? Weak.
The FSA came really close to doing this while I was working in the UK, I guess they finally did it last week.
Fuck.
What I meant to say was is:
a) the markets are awful;
b) I'm working on a presentation for the investment club I'm in and I don't think I'm going to sleep.
Well as I said in another thread, I networked my way onto the investment club exec. It was pretty funny to see the guy that sent me the rejection letter come up to me and apologize for rejecting me after he found out that I worked in London in banking, haha.
I'll give ttf some context because I'm going to be thinking about investing a lot in the next 18 months and I'll probably be posting on this topic more.
I'm one of two analysts in charge of the TMT (Tech, Media, Telecom) portfolio, covering both Canada and the US. The fund totals about $120-$130k. This is different than my previous investing experience because I used to just cover Canadian equities... should be interesting to see what's going on south of the border.
haha, that's great. I can imagine a group of green school boys who have a bunch of ideas about how to run a business rejecting someone who was actually working in the field :)
please keep us updated on what you learn. I have about $8.5k just sitting around in the a Charles Schwab checking account with a 1.7% APR that I would like to put in some choice places if you have any advise. I know the market is grim right now, but doesn't that mean there is considerable potential upward growth potential? (of course considerable downward risk as well)
ideally I would like to keep the money somewhat secure, but I would not say that I am very risk adverse. frankly, it is not a lot of money and if i am just going to receive a return of 4% from a CD then as far as I see it I am probably loosing money since current inflation is about 5% plus I would have to pay taxes on whatever I earn.
so I am thinking of rather than holding onto money that is only loosing value maybe it would be better to just pay off my student loans. on the other hand interest paid on my student loans is tax deductable. if I had earnings rate equal to the interest rate or greater of my student loans (~5%) then it might not be a bad idea to invest and divert some of my earnings to pay off my student loan interest.
as far as my eagerness to invest. i am pretty willing right now. I would like to be sure that I wouldn't face the possibility of loosing more than 5 of the 8.5 but if worse came to worse I would be fine with having 3k left of my saving to draw on if i needed it. the way I see it right now is that 8.5k is really not that much compared to future expected earnings and with it expected future investments, so i would like to learn about good investment mechanisms so that when i have more money to invest in the future i am not so heavily reliant upon strangers. it is not like i am planning on retiring with this money.
oh and gatz you said something about the FDIC only insuring up to 100k. i think they just bumped that up to 250k and i also think that the FDIC is willing to insure that much money for each patron at each different bank conglomerate. you have to be careful because often different banks are considered the same but i think there are up to 7 different banks available. but if you are really concerned then you might just want to open an account in britian or a european country that also has a federal government that insures depositors. that way you are at least diversifying against currency fluctuation risk associated with having all of your money in one country as well as hedging against the possibility of complete federal government collapse. :) however unlikely that may be.
good goals and reality of money, glad to see someone who is willing to take some risk to gain reward. I put 3000 in mutual funds about a year ago to try em out and I needed the money now and lost about $500. So my advice, do what you want with your money as far as stocks go, do your research and get in contact with someone who knows what they are talking about. There will be tons of money to be made on the up swing. Heck even on the down-swing, short trades. I was just unhappy that I turned money over to edward jones and hoped it would turn a profit without any real knowledge of the funds they had me investing in. Just my two cents, good luck
What do you guys think about eTrades(NASDAQ:ETFC) future right now? I think its trip into sub-primes was so minimal that it won't affect them long term. They are looking at taking advantage of the federal bailout, but the chance of them getting help I believe is very slim. Additionally they posted red for the past quarter, which could have been expected from the slow in trade and lack of confidence in the market.
By one year's time I think they will be pulling their price up from the $1.60 average minimum they are at now. I think that their base trading platform is their strong point and will pull the company through the bad times. They sold off all the FNMAES and FRDMACS to help relieve the losses the company was going to post this last quarter. Additionally they were about .20 per share less than what analysts expected.
Short term I believe that they will drop at least $.2 to .4 more in the next few days. But then could just stay idle for a while. During that idle time I think I will try and pick up a few shares if I find some money laying around.
Hey Lr have you thought about starting up a new section for investing since you got a nice crowd of eager money baggers here?
You guys might want to check out
http://www.updown.com/ a cool little investing game that gives you 1 mil. to throw around however you like. You can play games win some sweet cash.
> Hey Lr have you thought about starting up a new section for investing since you got a nice crowd of eager money baggers here?
no, i haven't thought about it.. but if more threads pop up about investing, it'd be a good idea! :D
i'm doing a presentation on valuation multiples to 150 people in 25 minutes!
THE TAO OF ALPHA
http://omploader.org/vMWRmaw
or: why active individual investing that achieves higher risk-adjusted return than the market is impossible.
:)
here we call "alpha" "beta-not".
beta investing ftw
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Ouch ... economy is dead. It's a conspiracy set to remove 50% of the world's wealth.
-Infowars
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
hahaha, I haven't heard the name infowars in a long time.
The price of silicon just dropped by $150/kg today. I am thinking about picking up some tech stocks in the renewable energy sector such as First Solar and Energy Conv. Devices. Their price has been dropping due to the inventory priced at the previous silicon prices, but I don't think it will be long before they see a nice steady pop in their valuation.
FSLR
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ :FSLR
ENER
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AENER
it's a great time to borrow!
my capital one apr is down to 8.33% on purchases and cash. that's a 1.53% premium on the federal student loan apr. pocket change!
my hsbc savings account is down to 1.65% apy. what a joke. i just withdrew all of my funds. i'm closing that account. it's not worth my time!
Étrangère
I am not a robot...
r3
Étrangère
I am not a robot...
what is hsbc?
the world's largest bank
Hongkong shanghai bank of china
On that note, I start my internship in 40 mins
nestor the intern! :D
hsbc is being a pain in the ass. they closed my account, and they also killed my online access so i cannot download the final statement.
so i called and asked them to send me the final statement. they said i have to mail them or fax them a request. :( so i asked them to send me the 1099-misc form. they said i have to wait until january then call back. :(
i have my money in First Arkansas Bank and Trust. i know, sounds pretty Monique, but they say they are going to give me 4.4% APR (payouts monthly, if I do 4 things) on my 'Kasasa Cash' checking account.
that is a scary APR on a checking account. maybe they are having capitalization issues and are desperately trying to limit withdrawals.
yeah, that's absurd. my mmda was getting under 2% apy.
also, i got a closing statement from hsbc in the mail unexpectedly. :D
since this thread basically hosts any thoughts on finance (in general) i have, i'm going to put this here
any of you econ students have an opinion on the controversy over high frequency trading/flash orders/dark pools/other opaquing market practices
i don't know anything about those topics
http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/ .
Try his book, really simple and good advice unlike other finance management books.
nestor, how's the garbage strike in toronto? i hear today it's especially foul smelling because of the heat.
i noticed the smell last night, didn't today.
the strike is actually over from what i know, but i suppose it's a few more days until everything actually gets cleaned up.
phi_
... and let the Earth be silent after ye.
Man, I wish we were all pro-union down here. I miss out on strikes and so on... :(
as the two economies de-unionized canada ended up keeping a lot more unions, probably due to the relative importance of the automotive and public sectors in our economy
i was seriously considering doing labour relations over finance a while ago.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
what happened?
i realized it probably didn't suit my strengths
and it's a dying industry, even here in canada.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Bringing this up again. Calling on Nestor ... any good tips for now?
it's a good time to be a consumer. buy durable goods.
what are you looking for in terms of recommendations - individual securities or broader themes?
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
anything man. I have a bit of cash that is just sitting in a savings account. Even with the highest APY percentages, I'm not going to get bigger than 2% on my money. I was thinking about gambling and hitting the stock market. I have about 5k, not much, but I want to see if I can at least get a return on my money that would be larger than 100 bucks.
http://westerninvestmentclub.com/files/presen … y-AEPI.ppt
here's a link to a presentation I did a few weeks ago on a company called AEP Industries.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Reading now Nestor. You should resurrect this thread.
I have 6k in the stockmarket right now. I am planning on moving another 2k in the next few weeks and probably another 2k by the end of the year. i am gambling. none of the crazy penny stocks or anything like that but mostly a handful of 1k large equity purchases in businesses that i expect to still exist in 4-5 years when I want my money back. any stock suggestions?
what is your methodology FSMART?
AEPI seems overvalued compared with historic prices but is that fundamentally flawed logic?
yes
i suppose i should elaborate.
the operating nature and capital structure of the business have changed markedly over the last two years, leading to a great increase in the earnings and cash flow generation of the business.
Nestor would you mind posting some statistics on your performance? Some ideas about how you would build your optimal portfolio etc. I think many of us are pretty curious about this.
nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
Personally I suggest forming a small militia and using it to enforce your will on the local populace.
I don't have an active portfolio personally, I don't have enough excess capital and time to make active management worthwhile. My current club isn't especially concerned with their returns as they do a lot of questionable buys just for education's sake, but my previous club was founded in fall 2003 and has outperformed a 25% bond / 75% equity benchmark by about 30% in that time, with an absolute return of 70% in the period.
I don't believe that active management makes sense for the vast majority of individual investors, in that there are high costs - transaction costs and your time. Then again I also don't believe giving your money to active managers makes a lot of sense, so long as you only have enough capital to deploy to give it away to mutual fund managers who for various reasons are rather poor performers too (or just expensive ways to go long the market). Index ETFs are probably the best way to go.
If you are an active individual investor I believe the *only* way to earn excess returns is through an extremely rigorous and informed value strategy. Finding undervalued securities with a large margin of safety is a challenge but is certainly possible, as evidenced by numerous highly successful hedge funds which have this mandate and which have posted stellar absolute returns in every market.
A 25% bond is crazy.
oh i get it now haha silly me
25% bond weighting?
hmm, so lining up a bunch of companies on a dart board and buying whatever stocks are hit might not be a good strategy?
> Index ETFs are probably the best way to go
selected based on your risk tolerance. e.g. small cap equities will earn you a higher return, but have more volatility...
If I had money to burn and was looking at having a 2-3 year position CBC would be my choice.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=CBC
why does that seem to happen on this forum:) ? someone recommends a particular stock and then it falls through the floor :) anyways, can't complain, since entering the market in may I have made a 16% return which is probably worse than the s&p 500 and just based on stocks on a dartboard, but heck. it sure make me feel good.
isn't it 132%?
current INX = 1256
may high = 946
1256/946 = 132%
i didn't know that shit is blowing up like that
and CBC between feb 26 and now has lost 78%. :/
They went from $47 in Dec 2007 to $0.45 in Dec 2010.
http://www.capitolbancorp.com/press/release_2010_12_06.pdf
Haha, I think you would be hard pressed for a worse candidate ...
time for a reverse stock split!
Hi guys, have you seen or considered something like this?
http://www.lendingclub.com/
I have a friend that's testing the waters. Just wanted some opinions!
seems cool, but i need more liquidity at the moment. i don't want to try trading their notes, either.
bought 40 shares of GYRO today @ $65.00, my price target is ~$130.
I think my strategy for technical analysis will be to bet on the opposite of what I think will happen.
goal: deploy $30 - 50k into cheap assets in the next 6 months.
at this time my best idea is still GYRO. looking hard at MSFT - whatever we believe about their products and services, they are a fantastic cash generator and investors (e.g. einhorn) are starting to agitate for change there. cash should be going back to shareholders instead of on building a war chest for acquisitions like skype.
opportunity: large producing gold mining companies have not participated in the significant increase in the gold price in the last few years.
issue: i don't want exposure to gold (or any other commodity, for that matter)
contemplating a trade going long on a portfolio of gold mining companies with low capital expenditure risk and hedge the spot gold risk by going short a physical gold ETF.
problems:
backtesting using data from recent years to determine the number of ETF shares to hedge isn't possible if the opportunity exists. will need discounted cash flow models of each gold company in the portfolio to determine the actual leverage each one should have to the gold price.
operating expenditure inflation is still unhedged. could add a physical oil ETF i suppose.
nestor is the best.
GYRO at almost $80 today. waiting for news or realization of my price target before i sell.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Anyone know what amount is good to start day trading? I keep hearing 3K on the internet is good to start out with.
Personally I'm strongly opposed to retail investors day trading... you have no advantage versus other market participants. In fact, you have a strong disadvantage. Your transaction costs are much higher than the "smart money" out there and you can't react to information with anything close to the same speed as an algorithm getting a direct newswire.
But I'm not a very reliable source of information on this matter - I'm a corporate finance guy.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
What about forex?
Not sure. I don't know much about the real-world forex market, just what I learned in school.
nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
forex is terrible. it's a super volatile market.
as an economist, i share nestor's views.
nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
I worked for an online forex exchange for a while.
I will say this. Guys with some seriously advanced degrees, and a hell of a lot of free time have tried to model the market there and have done so in vain. That market isn't predictable in any way and is very volatile. In effect it's like the lottery only with slightly better odds.
Hmm, forex seems like the sort of business with large amounts of money and lots of "poohah" while producing very little concrete results/products ...
exited GYRO at $99.00, weighted average cost base of $63.27, for an annualized return of 107%.
looking for new USD ideas!
picked up NTDOY (nintendo) at ~$17.60 with proceeds. it looks very, very cheap. big upside is predicated on next console and potential monetization of existing IPs (mario, pokemon, etc.)
next up is probably SALM (salem communications). it owns christian / conservative radio stations. trading at ~35% levered cash flow yield and ~15% unlevered cash flow yield. lots of debt, but has 2x interest coverage. lots of upside with good downside protection. can't say i like the actual business at all...
> picked up NTDOY (nintendo) at ~$17.60 with proceeds. it looks very, very cheap. big upside is
> predicated on next console and potential monetization of existing IPs (mario, pokemon, etc.)
Yikes! Who are you and what did you do to Nestor!?
haha, what is out of character about buying cheap stocks?
You're talking about "monetization" of Mario and Pokemon O.o
Not to mention even *considering* investing in fundamentalist Christian blather :-(
i'm amoral when it comes to making money, and i have been for a long time. i've been invested in far, far worse stuff - CXW comes to mind (corrections corp of america - they own and operate prisons).
from a utilitarian perspective, going into the secondary market and purchasing stock doesn't really do much (especially when you're only throwing 5-10k at it). it's not like i'm purchasing stock where the proceeds go directly to the company. i am technically bidding up the price of the stock, which lowers the firm's cost of capital. i also get some weird economic incentives. on the other hand, i don't buy stocks for growth, i buy them because i believe the price is attractive even in a downside scenario for the business.
if the volume is low enough, you won't even bid up the price
in my opinion, capital markets are indeed amoral. consumption is not, however, which is the key to me.
you mean if it's high enough, right?
and yeah, i agree with consumption
if the volume you buy is low enough, you won't have to bid up the price at all. (i.e., the last seller is willing to sell an additional epsilon shares for the same price.) i could easily be wrong.
that's right. i thought you meant volume in the sense of liquidity in the market, not in the sense of the bid size.
there are a bunch of radio equities that have similarly huge debt levels and refinanced on unattractive terms during the crisis - EMMS is another one. these ones need more work to evaluate than some of the other names i've given like NTDOY.
you're basically buying into a LBO-like structure where they're using free cash flow to repay the debt, so you need to have good confidence that the cash flow will repay all of the outstanding debt by maturity or they will be able to refinance it attractively at some point.
i think there's good upside in a neutral-growth scenario, but the issue is evaluating the downside...
choppy day in the market!
doubled down on my mining drillers, EGD and GEO.
also took a 3.75% position in each of SALM and EMMS.
i ended up tripling my position in SALM a couple days after.
it traded up 30% today after management presented the case for undervaluation at an investor conference. my model indicates intrinsic value in the $5.50 - $7.00 range (conservative estimates).
this graph amazes me.
what's the highest low-risk return, right now?
thoughts on
fpa crescent ?
the tsx is heavily weighted towards financials and oil & gas (to a lesser extent gold mining), which the credit crisis really crushed.
unfortunately i don't have any additional great ideas after salem ran up, it is still attractively prices around $4 but the conservative upside isn't as good and there's some downside risk (whereas previously it was trading at absurdly low levels by any metric).
from a macro perspective, there are lots of high quality property & casualty insurers with good earnings power that are very undervalued. friend of mine suggested endurance specialty holdings and arch capital, i haven't done any research on these names.
north american natural gas players (as long as they are unlevered / have low embedded financial risk) are also an interesting idea, as in the next few years (5+) i expect the differential between north american prices ($1-2 / mmbtu) will converge with asian prices (something insane like $18 / mmbtu) as infrastructure is put in place.
exited NTDOY in the mid-18s... i wouldn't normally exit so quickly, but i found an interesting longer-term opportunity that i'm more confident about (on downside and upside).
FTP (TSX), fortress paper. operates in a very niche market - security paper (for banknotes) and dissolving pulp (highly processed cellulose, essentially a cotton substitute). they hit around the 25% percentile mark on cost structure so they are well-insulated against a downturn in the market. they are fairly unlevered as well which gives them good flexibility. management has a wicked capital allocation history, for example buying old traditional pulp mills for cheap cheap prices and converting them to dissolving pulp mills. just in january they bought an old NBSK mill from domtar for $1 million, picked up a big loan from the government, and will spend $200 million in capex to get $80-100 million in EBITDA in a couple years - an outstanding return on equity. management owns ~20% of the equity and has a history of delivering on these conversion projects (conversion is a very difficult process and there are only a handful of people who have done it successfully, FTP has hired an experienced team). most importantly management has no illusions about riding the cycle and selling at an attractive exit point. they are not sold on the segment forever, but only are in this for the opportunity to crank out some great returns and get rich.
I have no idea what you just said.
i hope you stick to index investing!
oh man. i'll post again when i don't have ph.d. finals looming
nestor: i'm not comfortable with buying individual securities. it's not my money, the horizon is 5 years, but it needs to remain somewhat liquid (and stable in market value) in case of an emergency.
consequently, i'm looking at conservative mutual funds. is that reasonable?
lr,
in short, yes.
the reason why i am currently buying individual securities is because i have:
a) extensive training and experience in corporate finance and valuation to support analysis required in a value investing approach (which i believe is the only method to consistently achieve excess risk-adjusted returns relative to benchmarks)
b) time to do the required analysis
c) enough personal liquidity (40% of liquid assets) and available credit (bank lines and family) to support me in the event of emergency without requiring the sale of portfolio (worst case being forced to sell undervalued securities)
d) flexible time horizon (5+ years to realize intrinsic value).
if by "not your own money", you mean that you have significant liabilities (e.g. loans), then yes, i would probably stick to investing in USD investment-grade debt via mutual funds or ETFs. i know very little about those investment products, but i'd expect you'd be able to find some that have regular cash distributions. i would look into ETFs for low fees and lack of "active management".
i mean that the money is being held in trust.
alright, thanks!
just to be clear, you are the trustee, not the beneficiary?
i'm the trustee, yeah.
is there any reason to prefer IVE or EZY or VTV? EZY looks comparatively volatile.
considering i want low-risk, i should stick to a value large-cap ETF, right? i'm guessing that's the most stable. large-cap growth is taking off right now, but of course that's inherently riskier, yeah?
fidelity offers commission-free
ishares ETF trades (e.g., IVE).
e-trade offers commission-free
wisdomtree ETF trades (e.g., EZY).
scottrade offers commission-free
focus morningstar ETF trades (no large-cap value ETF available).
td ameritrade offers commission-free ishares and
vanguard ETF trades (e.g., IVE, VTV).
i wasn't recommending equity ETF, i was suggesting investment-grade debt ETFs. much less volatile.
all that said you should look into your legal risk around this arrangement, you may not even be able to put money into anything like this and only go money market funds.
ok, so something more like LQD (BBB+f), QLTA (A-f), or GBF (A-f)?
yeah, exactly. you'd need to look at how the etf actually works (i.e. whether it distributes funds or just reinvests coupons), and how that would affect taxability.
alright, swell. thanks. i'm not terribly concerned about taxes in that way, because it's not a legal trust. it's more of a implied family trust (for tax reasons). i'm so sick of researching it, too. i'm too busy with school work to pretend to be both a financial advisor and a financial advisor's client.
alright, well this will be a good learning experience for me! i haven't traded at all since i was a teenager.
it's good learning and if you put time and thought into it, it can be really rewarding. it's all about finding the investing style that you can get into. i think value investing is by far the most intellectually rewarding one, because you're always in this struggle to grasp the value of a security / a business that you generally only interact with by reading about it and doing a little math.
on that note, i'm out of SALM with a 80% cash return (ridiculous on an annualized basis). it rapidly moved up to where i thought a conservative trading value would be so i decided to take my profits and not wait around. i originally expected it wouldn't trade up until it refinanced in late 2013.
to me the SALM story is all about how there are lots of businesses that the "market" hates and there are great opportunities if you're patient with your review and get really comfortable with the story. in this case it was pretty case to crack with a basic cash flow model. anything with a 30% cash flow yield on the equity gets me excited... let alone a business as (near-term) stable as christian/conservative radio.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I should get into this.
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
$$$
some serious paper losses in the last couple days. not overly concerned - just hard to look away. i've been adding to all positions as they have fallen ~20% since last week. holding about 60% cash.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
FB below 30. Damn.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
I recently acquired 30000 in my Roth IRA. Now I am with Fidelity and I am clueless as to what to buy. Typically my 401k was based off of a fund that matched my retirement date. However, I want to take a more active role in where my money is going, and this is the first time I have significant funds.
Any advice?
nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
Buy a small town in south america. Take over the police and drug trade. You'll need some trustworthy locals though.
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Shoot I got my own crew. nny, build me some tesla coils.
looks like corporate debt is really taking off now. for example, junk bond etf
hyg is at the 5-year high and investment-grade bond etf
lqd has been making good progress lately.
any insight, nestor?
not really my area of expertise, but i would underweight HY relative to benchmark if your time horizon is beyond 2 years. under almost no circumstances would i overweight it. IG is ok.
i'm off to Omaha, NE tomorrow to attend the berkshire hathaway annual general meeting on saturday.
cool!
both my bond ETFs hit my price limits on friday!
08/15/2014 YOU SOLD
LQD ISHARES IBOXX INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORAT
Cash Shares: -20.000 Price: $120.00 Amount: $2,399.94
Fees: $0.06
Settlement Date: 08/20/2014
08/15/2014 YOU SOLD
TIP ISHARES TIPS BOND ETF
Cash Shares: -20.000 Price: $116.00 Amount: $2,319.94
Fees: $0.06
Settlement Date: 08/20/2014
(that's just a partial sale. i still hold much more of both funds.)
those trading costs are hot